🛡️The February Weekly Update

In this week's Shield Report, paid subscribers get:

• - The complete Red Line analysis with annotated charts

• - Momentum trend update and what it means for positioning

• - Model portfolio allocation for the current market environment

• - Will the S&P Momentum Trend turn negative?

• - What to watch for in the week ahead. Clear signals. No guesswork.

The February Signal

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🛡️The February Weekly Update

In this week's Shield Report, paid subscribers get:

• - The complete Red Line analysis with annotated charts

• - Momentum trend update and what it means for positioning

• -Overview of the rotation out of Big-Tech into Value

• - What is driving (and dragging) this market.

• - Model portfolio allocation for the current market environment

• - What to watch for in the week ahead. Clear signals. No guesswork.

The February Signal

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We are grateful for your support and engagement with Momentum Wealth Research. To sustain the depth and quality of our institutional-grade research—including the monthly Shield & Sword updates, Red Line signal, and momentum rankings—we are transitioning to a fully paid subscription model effective immediately.

As a token of our appreciation for your loyalty as a current subscriber, we are pleased to offer you an exclusive 50% discount.

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Thank you for being part of our community. We remain committed to delivering objective, trend-following insights to help you navigate markets with clarity and confidence.

Now, onto this month’s Shield Update…

🛡️The February Weekly Update

• The Monthly Red Line Signal | Risk Status

• Synopsis of the long-term trend

• Synopsis of Momentum

• Overview of Market Rotation, lagging growth, leading value

• The Hypothetical Model Portfolio settings for February.

Moving Beyond “Passive” to a Risk-Management Plan

Most investors buy a broad index fund(s) and just hope for the best. But markets don’t work like this. Historical drawdowns of -20% to -50% aren’t uncommon, and it can often take 2 to 10 years just to get back to even when this happens.

For a passive investor, that’s a decade of lost time. For us, that is a risk we refuse to take without a plan.

The Shield is the plan in attempt to combat this. It tells you when the trend favors growth and, more importantly, when it’s time to manage risk.

To read our full disclaimer, click here

The February Signal

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• The Monthly Red Line Signal | Risk Status

• Breakdown of the long-term trend

• Breakdown of momentum

• The Hypothetical Model Portfolio settings for February.

Moving Beyond “Passive” to a Risk-Management Plan

Most investors buy a broad index fund(s) and just hope for the best. But markets don’t work like this. Historical drawdowns of -20% to -50% aren’t uncommon, and it can often take 2 to 10 years just to get back to even when this happens.

For a passive investor, that’s a decade of lost time. For us, that is a risk we refuse to take without a plan.

The Shield is the plan in attempt to combat this. It tells you when the trend favors growth and, more importantly, when it’s time to manage risk.

To read our full disclaimer, click here

Current Market Status: 🟢 Positive

The signals are favorable. The market trend is pointing up, making this a high-probability environment to be invested.

The Month-End Shield signal is the primary signal that we use to dictate our Hypothetical Model Portfolio

Paid members can access this below to see actionable ideas on how you could invest with the trend.

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🧠Cutting Through the "Noise"

We ignore the headlines and focus on the trend. This week, the media focused on:

• The US Dollar falling

• A new Federal Reserve Chairman Nominee

• Silver & Gold Rush

• AI Capex Concerns

Yet the trend was positive throughout January and stocks closed higher!

The Takeaway: If the headlines scare you, turn off the TV and look at the Red Line.

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🛡️The Red Line | Long-Term Trend Review

We define risk using one primary metric: The Red Line (the 200-day moving average).

• The Signal: If the price is Above the Red Line, we play offense. If it falls Below the Red Line, we play defense.

• The Verdict: Both the S&P 500 (SPY) and the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) are currently trading Above the Red Line ✅.

S&P 500

Above the Red Line ✅

Nasdaq 100

Above the Red Line ✅

🛡️Momentum Trend Review (The Speedometer)

Think of this as the “speed” of the market. It measures the strength behind the price.

• We track a faster-moving moving averages to track the market momentum.

• Positive Momentum: When the Gray Line is above the Blue Line, the market has positive momentum.

• Neutral/Lagging Momentum: When the Gray Line is below the Blue Line, the market has negative / neutral momentum.

S&P 500

Positive ✅

Advanced analysis: On Wednesday, the S&P 500 Index broke above all-time highs reaching the $7,000 mark. While it closed below these levels, we are still above the October 2025 high, which we would like to see become short-term support.

All that said, the past 2 weeks brought their fair share of headlines and geopolitical events - Greenland, Tariffs, Japan Government Bonds, Iran, etc. yet the market still managed to make new highs. Be prudent. Follow the trends, not the headlines.

Nasdaq 100

Positive ✅

Advanced analysis: A more thematic analysis this month for the Nasdaq 100 the story of Tech vs. the broad market. Historically, our market leaders are found in the tech heavy QQQ, however it has been in a lull since the Nov. 2025 pullback. This past week, we had big earnings from , , , and . These four giants make up ~17% of the Nasdaq 100.

Despite a mixed bag of said mega-cap earnings, the QQQ is above the red line with a positive momentum trend, indicating the broader market is making up for the few Mega-Cap laggards.

🛡️⚔️The Shield and Sword Hypothetical Model

The following section is reserved for paid subscribers of Momentum Wealth Research.

Investors are trained to seek predictions. What you should really seek is a process.

Upgrade to access the full Sword Process—the comprehensive framework integrating the hypothetical Model Portfolio (centerpiece), Momentum Rankings, and Roundtable insights.

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Trend: 🟢 Positive

Momentum: 🟢Positive

Current Model Hypothetical Positioning

How the Model Works - Examples:

The Positive Environment 🟢

At the end of each month, if the price is Above the Red Line, the system is on offense.

• The Shield: Hypothetically allocates ~70% to ~85% to broad equity indexes (like the S&P 500) to capture the primary trend.

• The Sword: Hypothetically allocates ~15% to ~30% to the Momentum Stocks or high-strength sectors / thematic funds in attempt to capture current leadership.

The Negative Environment (Shield is Red 🔴)

At the end of each month, if the price breaks Below the Red Line, the system moves to defense.

• The Shield (Risk Management): Hypothetically allocates as low as 0% to equities and as high as 100% to risk-off assets like cash, money markets, or short-term Treasuries.

• The Sword: Hypothetically allocates as low as 0% to momentum stocks, moving the entire portion to ‘risk-off’ alongside the Shield.

See the current Sword Rankings here: The Sword | Momentum Wealth Research | Substack

Extras

Semiconductors (primarily memory) continue to look extremely strong.

Memory names and likely to be added to the Sword Stocks - stay tuned for the Sword Rankings this weekend.

Energy making new 2-year highs as oil prices rise. is on watch to join the Sword rankings as well.

Stay tuned for the new Sword Rankings update this weekend - some positive changes coming up.

-Your friends at Momentum Wealth Research

Disclosures

Momentum Wealth Research LLC (“The Publisher”) is an independent publisher of financial information. All content provided is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute personalized or specific investment advice. Momentum Wealth Research LLC is an affiliate of Momentum Wealth Planning, LLC (“The RIA”) and are separate legal entities.

Your subscription does not create a fiduciary, client, or professional relationship with The Publisher or The RIA. All investment strategies, including the “Shield & Sword” system, involve a significant risk of loss. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Model portfolios are purely conceptual and do not represent the performance of actual trading activity. Readers are encouraged to independently evaluate all investments and consult with a professional advisor before taking action.

Please see our full Terms of Service & Privacy Policy

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Weekly Market Monitor & Risk Analysis

To read our full disclaimer, click here

The Bottom Line

Most investors buy an index fund and hope for the best. The Shield is a systematic addition to that strategy, designed to signal when the trend favors growth and when it's time to defend.

Addressing the Noise: This Week’s Context

We include these events only to address the “fear & greed” that dominates the financial media. While these are notable, they are secondary to the trend:

• Japan Government Bonds: Japan’s rising interest rates are causing bond market volatility.

• Greenland: Geopolitical tension has increased following the proposed 10%–25% escalating tariff on European countries.

• The Credit Card Cap: A proposed 10% cap on credit card interest rates is creating localized pressure on the financial sector.

Signal Over Noise

Our system is built on the reality that the “noise” of news headlines and geopolitics is a distraction. While headlines explain why the market moved yesterday, the Trend tells you how to manage risk today.

In this system, the trend isn’t just a guide—it is the primary purpose. The only objective way to manage risk and remove emotion from your portfolio is to stay on the right side of the Trend.

We don’t manage news; we manage risk through the trend.

If the headlines scare you, turn off the television and look at the trend.

Current Market Status:

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Weekly Market Monitor & Risk Analysis

To read our full disclaimer, click here

The Bottom Line

Most investors buy an index fund and hope for the best. The Shield is the systematic upgrade to that strategy, designed to signal when the macro environment favors growth and when it's time to defend.

Headline Review:

• Earnings Season Kick-off: The big banks led the charge this week.

• Inflation & the Fed: The latest CPI data came in softer than expected.

• The Venezuela "boost" to Energy: Renewed geopolitical instability in Venezuela has tightened global supply expectations, providing a significant "kick" to domestic Energy leaders.

Market Status:

Read more

Weekly Market Monitor & Risk Analysis

The Bottom Line

Most investors buy an index fund and hope for the best. The Shield is the systematic upgrade to that strategy, designed to signal when the macro environment favors growth and when it's time to defend.

Current Status: 🟢 GREEN (Optimistic)

What this means: The macro trend is positive. Our monitors show the overall market is in a healthy state, making it a high-probability environment for being invested in equities.

1. The Red Line | Long-Term Trend Review

We define the long-term health of the market by one simple metric:

Is the price above or below the “Red Line” (the 200-day moving average)?

• The Verdict: While “Buy-and-Hold” forces you to ride the market to the bottom, the Shield provides an objective risk signal. For now, the signal is clear: Stay Optimistic.

S&P 500

Above the Red Line ✅

Nasdaq 100

Above the Red Line ✅

2. Momentum Trend Review (The Speedometer)

The Red Line tells us the direction; our momentum monitors tell us the strength.

If the Blue Line is above the Red line, the momentum trend is positive

S&P 500

Positive ✅

Advanced Analysis: After some decent strength to begin the new year, we are now seeing a continuation of “Higher Lows” form. Any pullbacks between current levels and November Low $650 support would be relatively normal, as that would be a ~6% pullback from current levels. Ideally, stocks continue to trend in Q1, and this $688 level becomes new support.

Nasdaq 100

Positive ✅

Advanced Analysis: As premium members can see from our Sword Rankings, tech continues to be a mixed bag. Mega-Caps like , , continue to lag. These laggards account for ~20% of the Nasdaq 100. Meanwhile, promising breakouts are forming from in Financials and Healthcare, which have little to no representation in . Nevertheless, the trend is positive, price is making a series of higher lows, indicating this is an optimistic environment.

Know an investor stuck in “Buy-and-Hold”?

If you found this week’s Shield Signal helpful, don’t let your friends and colleagues navigate this market without a plan. Forward this report to one person who needs an objective risk management system.

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🧠 Sentiment & Themes

The Rotation

Value Stocks

• Verdict: We are obviously seeing strength in value stocks - namely Healthcare and Financials leading the charge. and breaking out to all-time-highs, and , not far behind.

Growth Stocks

• Verdict: Relative to Value, growth stocks are lagging. The important note is the difference between a downtrend and consolidation. When you look at the broad representation of growth stocks by - this is not a downtrend.

Sector Spotlight: Financials (XLF)

• The Chart: We think the chart speaks for itself here. Leadership in financials is clear. Led by and .

Technical View: Currently in a strong uptrend after clearing major resistance at $54.00. Rallies up to the upper moving average envelope (green) followed by minor pullbacks are a signal of a very healthy trend.

⚔️ The Missing Piece: The Sword Rankings

The Shield tells you where the market is trending. It doesn’t tell you who the leaders are.

While the “Buy-and-Hold” crowd focuses on diversification, our M5 Algorithm identifies the 5 specific leaders sitting firmly Above the Red Line.

• 5. Johnson & Johnson

• 4. LOCKED

• 3. LOCKED

• 2. LOCKED

• 1. LOCKED

Stop holding the laggards. Start identifying the leaders.

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Disclosures

Momentum Wealth Planning, LLC (“Momentum”) is a federally registered investment adviser under the Investment Advisers Act of 1940. Registration as an investment adviser does not constitute an endorsement of Momentum by the SEC nor does it indicate that Momentum has attained a particular level of skill or ability.

The information herein was obtained from various sources. The information provided is believed to be from reliable sources but no liability is accepted for any inaccuracies or completeness of information provided by third parties. The information in this communication is given as of the date indicated and believed to be reliable. Momentum assumes no obligation to update this information, or to advise on further developments relating to it. This is for information purposes and should not be construed as an investment recommendation. Past performance is no guarantee of future performance.

The material presented by Momentum Wealth Planning, LLC is for informational purposes only. It is not intended to serve as a substitute for personalized investment advice or as a recommendation or solicitation of any particular security, strategy or investment product. Actual economic or market events may turn out differently than as presented. Materials posted to this site are from external sources and are provided for your convenience in locating related information and services. Momentum expressly disclaims any responsibility for and does not maintain, control, recommend, or endorse third-party sites, organizations, products, or services, and make no representation as to the completeness, suitability, or quality thereof.

Weekly Market Monitor & Risk Analysis

Current Market Status: 🟢 Positive

The signals are favorable. The market trend is pointing up, making this a high-probability environment to be invested.

The Month-End Shield signal is the primary signal that we use to dictate our Hypothetical Model Portfolio

Paid members can access this below to see actionable ideas on how you could invest with the trend.

Not a paid subscriber yet? Start your Free Trial

Get 7 day free trial

🛡️The Red Line | Long-Term Trend Review

We define risk using one primary metric: The Red Line (the 200-day moving average).

• The Signal: If the price is Above the Red Line, we play offense (Buy/Hold). If it falls Below the Red Line, we play defense (Sell/Protect).

• The Verdict: Both the S&P 500 (SPY) and the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) are currently trading Above the Red Line ✅.

  ---

S&P 500

Status: Positive Long-Term Trend ✅

Nasdaq 100

Status: Positive Long-Term Trend ✅

🛡️Momentum Trend Review (The Speedometer)

Think of this as the “speed” of the market. It measures the strength behind the price.

• We track a faster-moving moving averages to track the market momentum.

• Positive Momentum: When the Gray Line is above the Blue Line, the market has positive momentum.

• Neutral/Lagging Momentum: When the Gray Line is below the Blue Line, the market has negative / neutral momentum.

  ---

S&P 500

Status: Positive Momentum Trend ✅

Analysis: After testing resistance in late November, the index pulled back below the 50-day Moving Average (Red Line). We are now seeing a “Higher Low” form—a classic bullish structure. As long as price stays above $672, and the 21EMA above the 50SMA, the trend is healthy.

Nasdaq 100

Status: Positive Momentum Trend ✅

Analysis: Tech showed weakness in November but found support near the October lows ($590). Momentum has reset. We are watching for the rally to continue above the $625 resistance line to confirm the next leg higher.

🧠 Sentiment & Themes

The Fundamental Floor: Earnings Growth

While we trade on price, we respect the fundamentals. S&P 500 earnings have remained resilient and growing throughout the year, defying recession predictions.

• Verdict: Constructive. stock prices tend to follow corporate profits. The fact that earnings are expanding validates this rally—it suggests this is not just a speculative bubble, but an uptrend supported by real cash flow.

Sector Spotlight: Semiconductors (SMH)

Semiconductors are currently a “mixed bag,” but the internal rotation is bullish.

• The Divergence: While mega-cap giants like Broadcom and Nvidia are still attempting to rally off support, new leadership has emerged in names like Micron and Lam Research , which are coming off of new highs.

Technical View: The recent pullback in the Semiconductor ETF appears to have been a temporary lull rather than a trend change. The group is cycling higher again, and we are watching for the trend to continue into a decisive breakout above $370 resistance to confirm the next leg up.

The M5 Power Rankings December 2025

• T5. J.P. Morgan

• T5. LOCKED

• 4. LOCKED

• 3. LOCKED

• 2. LOCKED

• 1. LOCKED

Want the rest of the list?

You’ve seen the Momentum Signal and our Bonus Pick (JPM). But the M5 Strategy flagged 5 other high-momentum setups heading into January that are moving right now.

Unlock the full M5 Power Rankings instantly and get:

• ✅ The Top 2 Healthcare Breakouts (Rotational plays).

• ✅ The Top 3 Mega-Cap Tech Leaders (Trend continuation).

• ✅ Weekly Updates & Trends for every ticker.

See the full list free for 7 days.

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Disclosures

Momentum Wealth Research LLC (“The Publisher”) is an independent publisher of financial information. All content provided is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute personalized or specific investment advice. Momentum Wealth Research LLC is an affiliate of Momentum Wealth Planning, LLC (“The RIA”) and are separate legal entities.

Your subscription does not create a fiduciary, client, or professional relationship with The Publisher or The RIA. All investment strategies, including the “Shield & Sword” system, involve a significant risk of loss. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Model portfolios are purely conceptual and do not represent the performance of actual trading activity. Readers are encouraged to independently evaluate all investments and consult with a professional advisor before taking action.

Please see our full Terms of Service & Privacy Policy

Terms of Service | Privacy Policy

An update on market momentum & trend.

Our weekly research seeks to answer two questions:

1. Is momentum positive or negative?

2. Is momentum telling us to be optimistic or pessimistic?

Momentum is the authority— we are optimistic during positive momentum, but pessimistic when it fades.

Weekly Segment Format ✔️

1. Summary

2. Momentum Review | Index analysis driving our optimism or pessimism

3. Sentiment & Themes | Additional analysis to support to our optimism or pessimism

   Check out our M5 Power Rankings - a weekly analysis of top momentum stocks

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Summary

1. Overall Positive & Optimistic outlook

2. Major indices in positive long-term trends

3. Major indices in positive momentum trends

4. Higher-than-expected Q3 GDP report signals potential Santa Rally fuel.

5. Sentiment optimistic: Consumer discretionary outperforms staples, healthcare exhibits strong relative momentum.

Read more

Momentum is tactical—it builds in indexes during uptrends but can fade quickly, turning strength into weakness.

This free edition charts major indices and sentiment to spot gaining momentum and fading signs —educational context for current regimes.

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Weekly Segment Format ✔️

1. Indices Review | Comprehensive trend analysis of key benchmarks. Long term Trends, Momentum Trends, short term trends

2. Sentiment & Themes | Market internals, breadth, investor sentiment, and prevailing themes driving rotations.

Read more